Future trends, challenges and solutions for solar PV

Future trends, challenges and solutions for solar PV

The Global Energy Transition: A Roadmap to 2050 report states that renewable energy, deep electrification, and energy efficiency improvements are three important directions for the energy transition, and that renewable energy is gradually becoming central to the global energy transition. Of all the low-carbon technology options, accelerated deployment of solar PV solutions alone could significantly reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 49 billion tons in 2050, a value that represents 21% of the total energy sector reduction potential. Achieving the Paris targets will require a significant acceleration of a range of technologies in different areas. By the projected year 2050, solar photovoltaic power will be the second largest source of electricity generation after wind power, leading the transformation of the global power sector.

1. The installed market for photovoltaic power generation is gaining momentum

PV development prospects according to the REmap path is expected (global power generation share; total installed capacity and annual deployment)

Trend of new installed PV power generation

In terms of the current status of the installed capacity, in 2018, the cumulative installed capacity of global PV power generation has exceeded 480 GW, and the annual new installed capacity reached the highest, more than 94 GW. according to the development of PV technology and global energy strategy transformation development is expected to reach 2.48 TW in 2030, the annual new installed capacity will reach 270 GW, and the share of PV power generation in total power generation will reach 13%. In 2050, the global installed PV capacity will reach 8.5 TW, with 372 GW of new capacity and a 25% share of PV power generation in total power generation.

Overview of the regional distribution of the growth of global installed PV power generation in the future to 2050

Overview of the regional distribution of global solar photovoltaic project investment

In terms of regions, countries in the Asian region will continue to dominate the solar PV market in the future, followed by the United States and Europe. In addition, emerging markets will continue to emerge, "One Belt, One Road" along the countries will become popular, South America, the Middle East and other regional countries may become the main source of future market growth. At present, solar photovoltaic power generation has become one of the most competitive products in Australia, Chile, Egypt, France, South Africa, Spain, the United Arab Emirates and other countries.

2. PV costs will continue to decline

Photovoltaic costs and investment (installed costs; electricity production costs; total annual average investment and new jobs)

Trends in solar project development costs from 2010-2018

IRENA forecasts that solar project development costs (installed cost per kW) will fall from $1,210 in 2018 to $340-834 in 2030 (a reduction of about 31% to 72%) and to $165-481 by 2050 (a reduction of about 60% to 86%). During this period, the winning electricity price will also decline rapidly worldwide.


The trend of the installed cost of photovoltaic in each country can be seen in 2018, the installed cost of each country basically fell to the same level


Declining trend of solar cost of electricity (LCOE)

The cost of solar kilowatt-hour (kWh) will fall from $0.085/kWh in 2018 to $0.02-0.08/kWh in 2030 and to $0.01-0.05/kWh by 2050. distributed PV is becoming closer to or even lower than retail electricity prices between generation costs, and the economics of distributed PV are becoming more attractive to individual investors with each passing day. in 2018, the PV industry investment amounted to about $114 billion, and by 2050, PV investment will rise to $192 billion per year (an increase of about 68%), expanding solar PV energy investment is critical to the growth of installed PV capacity in the next decade.

3. Photovoltaic power generation technology development and the difficulty of tackling

In the past few decades, solar PV has improved greatly in terms of efficiency and power generation. 2018, polycrystalline PV efficiency reached 17% and monocrystalline PV efficiency reached 18%. This growth trend is expected to continue until 2030. However, as the global PV market grows, the need to prevent panel degradation and manage the large number of retired PV panels is carried out along with the practice of circular economy. This includes innovative and alternative approaches to reduce material use and module degradation, as well as reuse technologies and increased recycling of PV panels at the end of their useful life. PV solar solutions, technical solutions and a market environment supportive of PV development are the basis for preparing for a continued increase in the share of grid-connected solar PV in the future.  In order to effectively manage large-scale intermittent renewable energy sources, flexibility in all sectors of the energy system must be harnessed. This includes generation to transmission and distribution systems, storage (electricity and heat), and the progressive increase in energy demand flexibility (demand-side management and sector coupling).

4. Policy support for future PV development

There are multiple indications that the energy transition can bring significant socio-economic benefits. By 2050, the solar industry will employ more than 18 million people (14 million of whom will be employed in solar PV), four times more than the 4.4 million jobs in 2018 (3.6 million in solar PV). However, the comprehensive policy framework and pv solar solutions is particularly necessary to maximize the results of the energy transition.  Deployment strategies need to be coordinated with grid connection and enabling strategies. Within the enabling policy framework, a special focus on industrial, financial, education and skills policies is needed to maximize the benefits of the transition. Education and skills policies can help equip the workforce with adequate skills and increase local employment opportunities. Similarly, sound industrial policies, based on local supply chains, can support the development of the solar PV industry by leveraging existing economic activity to promote income and employment growth.

In addition, the report states that unlocking the vast potential of solar PV is critical to achieving climate goals. This can only be achieved by removing the current barriers on different fronts (policy, market and economic, technical, regulatory, political and social). Grid connection and grid flexibility, economies of scale, access to finance, lack of relevant standards and quality assurance measures, and consumer awareness are the main barriers that are likely to hinder the deployment of solar PV capacity over the next 30 years. Removing existing barriers through a range of pv solar solutions, supportive policies and implementation measures, including innovative business models, along with the development of new financial instruments will be critical to facilitate the deployment of future solar PV capacity to enable the completion of a low-carbon, sustainable future energy transition.